The ongoing war between the United States, Israel, and Iran is triggering a global energy and food crisis, and Nigeria is not insulated from its effects. The conflict began with US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran on February 28, effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow but critical channel that handles about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). This disruption has removed an estimated 400 million barrels from global markets — equivalent to roughly four days of world supply — causing oil prices to surge by about 50%.
For Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producer, the ramifications are immediate and serious. Global benchmark crude has risen above $110 per barrel, while Middle Eastern crudes, a key source for Asian and European markets, have hit records near $164 per barrel. These price spikes translate to higher costs for fuel imports, domestic consumption, and electricity generation, putting added pressure on households and businesses already grappling with inflation.
The war has also directly damaged energy infrastructure in the Middle East. Iranian and Israeli strikes have targeted oil refineries, gas fields, and terminals, many of which will take years to repair. For Nigeria, which supplements its domestic refined fuel supply with imports, this heightens the risk of shortages, longer queues at petrol stations, and rising transport costs that could ripple across the economy.
Food security is another critical concern. About a third of global fertiliser trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions have caused nitrogen-based fertiliser prices, including urea, to rise 30% to 40%. Nigerian farmers preparing for the planting season face higher input costs and limited availability of essential fertilisers, threatening crop yields and potentially raising food prices. With fertilisers accounting for a significant portion of production costs, shortages could reduce staple crop output, including maize, rice, and cassava, and affect livestock production.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has called the crisis the worst global energy disruption in history, surpassing even the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Measures proposed globally — such as fuel rationing, limiting air travel, and energy conservation — are challenging for Nigeria, where transport and logistics are critical for commerce, agriculture, and daily life.
The ripple effects extend to electricity generation, industry, and the logistics sector. Rising energy costs threaten industrial output, while fertiliser shortages could depress agricultural productivity. Inflationary pressures are likely to intensify, squeezing household budgets and risking broader economic slowdown if the conflict persists.
Experts warn that Nigeria must urgently explore strategies to mitigate the impact, including boosting domestic fuel production, securing alternative fertiliser supplies, and implementing targeted energy-saving measures. Failure to act could leave the country grappling with a dual crisis of energy scarcity and food insecurity, illustrating how geopolitical conflicts thousands of miles away can have immediate, far-reaching consequences at home.
As the US-Israel-Iran war unfolds, Nigeria’s experience underscores the vulnerability of energy-dependent economies to international tensions, showing how global crises can quickly translate into real-world economic and social challenges.
